Sariyer home matches average 1.83 total goals (67% Under 2.5 this season). Last 5 home games show very low output. Amed away xGA 1.20 (disciplined). H2H: none of last 8 meetings exceeded 3.5 goals, recent average ~2.6. Anomaly-adjusted expected goals ~2.3-2.4 total (Sariyer missing ineligible forward Babacar + suspended defender Osmanpaşa; Poko unavailable vs parent club). No rotation risk, standard mid-table vs promotion pressure context.